Category Archives: Market Timing

Transportation Sector – Ominous

Posted on December 30, 2015 by

I wrote an article yesterday about the growing divergence between the junk bond and equity markets. There is a second divergence within the equity market that is equally ominous.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Junk Bond Meltdown

Posted on December 29, 2015 by

I initially discussed the implications of widening junk bond spreads in a prescient September 2015 post titled “Widening Junk Bond Spreads: Bull Market in Peril,” which was inspired by a MarketWatch article titled “Junk Bond Market: Danger Ahead,” written by … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Recession Model Forecast: 12-01-2015

Posted on December 22, 2015 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through November 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator; I added two new explanatory variables in … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Gold Still Overvalued by 23.5%

Posted on December 6, 2015 by

I read an interesting article by Neil Azous in the December 2015 issue of Modern Trader (“Has the Golden Moment Passed?”) that inspired me to do some further research into modeling gold prices. The resulting research greatly enhanced my understanding … Continue reading →

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Posted in Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – November 2015

Posted on December 3, 2015 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the November 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST.

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11-30-2015 AAR Strategy Update Posted

Posted on November 30, 2015 by

The November 30, 2015 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading →

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

US Manufacturing Data at Recession Levels

Posted on November 18, 2015 by

I read an interesting article by Jill Mislinski on AdvisorPerspectives.com. The article was titled “Empire State Manufacturing Declined for Fourth Consecutive Month.” The takeaway from the article is that US Manufacturing is slowing at a rate not seen since the … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Recession Model Forecast: 11-01-2015

Posted on November 18, 2015 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through October 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator; I added two new explanatory variables in … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment