Category Archives: Market Timing

Overvalued Equities Suggest 58.9% Decline

Posted on September 25, 2015 by

There is a big difference between correlation and causation. When I research data relationships, I always look for plausible, underlying cause and effect relationships. One such relationship is between valuation and future returns, particularly before recessions. Doug Short’s recent article … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Recession Risk Jumps: 09-01-2015

Posted on September 15, 2015 by

Over the past few months, I have written numerous articles about the increasing downside risk in the equity market. After the bottom fell out of the stock market last month, I have been particularly interested in examining the recession model … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Widening Junk Bond Spreads: Bull Market in Peril

Posted on September 9, 2015 by

In yesterday’s MarketWatch article titled “Junk Bond Market: Danger Ahead,” Brett Arends reported that “Since the start of June the yield on the benchmark junk bond index, the Barclays High-Yield Index, has spiked alarmingly as prices have fallen. In practical … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

More Evidence of Negative GDP Growth in China

Posted on September 8, 2015 by

In this morning’s MarketWatch article titled “China exports fall for second month in a row,” Grace Zhy, Mark Magnier, and Rose Yu  report that year-over-year exports and imports in China fell by 5.5% and 13.8% in August and by 8.3% … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

14 Recent Cautionary Articles on Trader Edge

Posted on September 7, 2015 by

Market volatility has exploded recently and prices have declined precipitously. Here are links to 14 cautionary Trader Edge articles that were published during the past few months. These articles will give you some insight into the current economic and market … Continue reading →

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“Recession” – Highest Interest Since 2009: Google Trends

Posted on September 6, 2015 by

When forecasting recessions and market reversals, sometimes it helps to think outside the box. Everyone knows about technical indicators and economic data. Some traders follow market breadth and sentiment, but here is one that you may not follow.

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Posted in Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , | 1 Comment

RSI Divergence Called Every Recession in the Last 25 Years

Posted on September 6, 2015 by

Tomi Gilmore’s recent MarketWatch article (“Bearish divergence is warning investors not to buy the dip in the stock market”) reminded me how effective divergences can be in identifying market reversals – well before they occur. Bearish divergences occur when an … Continue reading →

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Posted in Equity Market Snapshot, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Technical Analysis | Leave a comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – August 2015

Posted on September 3, 2015 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the August 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments