Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Forecast – February 2014

Posted on March 6, 2014 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the February 2014 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

2-28-2014 AAR Strategy Update Posted

Posted on March 1, 2014 by

The February 28, 2014 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy page.

The AAR strategy is a conservative, long-only, asset allocation strategy that rotates monthly among five large asset classes: large-cap U.S. stocks, developed country stocks in Europe and Asia, emerging market stocks, U.S. Treasury Notes, and commodities. The strategy was inspired by the Ivy League portfolio and uses trend and technical filters to reduce downside risk.

If none of the five candidates pass their respective trade filters, the AAR strategy remains in cash for the month.   Stop-loss orders are used on every trade to control losses and to facilitate position sizing.

Brian Johnson

Copyright 2014 - Trading Insights, LLC - All Rights Reserved.

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

5 Near-Term Warning Signs

Posted on February 23, 2014 by

Despite the impressive V-shaped recovery in stock prices over the past two weeks, there is still serious cause for concern.  There are five near-term warning signs the equity markets must vanquish before the bulls can declare a short-term victory over the bears.

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Posted in Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Relatlive Strength Warning Sign

Posted on February 16, 2014 by

The relative strength market timing indicator (RSMTI) is one of my favorite tools. It has been very useful in identifying short-term and long-term market turning points before they occur.  It correctly predicted the recent pullback in the equity markets eight days before the market peaked in January of 2014.

Despite the surprising strength of the equity market over the last seven trading days ending 2/14/2014, the RSMTI is still bearish.  That is very unusual and represents a major divergence between prices and relative strength.  The recent rebound in equity prices was not supported by relative strength, which is a near-term warning sign for the equity markets.

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Posted in AmiBroker Code, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Recession Model Forecast 02-01-2014

Posted on February 13, 2014 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through January 2014.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Forecast – January 2014

Posted on February 6, 2014 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the January 2014 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

1-31-2014 AAR Strategy Update Posted

Posted on February 1, 2014 by

The January 31, 2014 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy page.

The AAR strategy is a conservative, long-only, asset allocation strategy that rotates monthly among five large asset classes: large-cap U.S. stocks, developed country stocks in Europe and Asia, emerging market stocks, U.S. Treasury Notes, and commodities.

If none of the five candidates pass their respective trade filters, the AAR strategy remains in cash for the month.   Stop-loss orders are used on every trade to control losses and to facilitate position sizing.

Brian Johnson

Copyright 2014 - Trading Insights, LLC - All Rights Reserved.

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

2013 Trader Edge Strategy Research

Posted on January 30, 2014 by

I don’t write about it often on Trader Edge, but most of my work the past year has been on option strategies.  As a rule, I do not trade strategies unless they demonstrate a significant advantage in back and forward testing.  In addition, there must be some rationale or premise that explains why the market inefficiency exists and why it will persist in the future. Unfortunately, backtesting option strategies have always been an extremely challenging and time consuming process, but I had several breakthroughs in 2013.

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