Tag Archives: recession forecast 2012

A New Recession Slack Indicator

I introduced the topic of recession forecasting in late October.  I have since developed several recession forecasting tools that I created by applying probit, logit, and neural network models to a diffusion index of economic and market-related variables.  This article … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , | 31 Comments

U.S. Recession Risk Jumps 20% in November

I introduced the topic of recession forecasting in late October and have since developed several recession forecasting tools that I created by applying probit, logit, and neural network models to a diffusion index of economic and market-related variables.  If you … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Recession Model Improvements

I introduced the topic of recession forecasting in late October with a discussion of Capital Spectator’s Economic Trend index, which I used as a foundation for two new recession forecasting models. Last week I explained the potential limitations of forecasting … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

New Probit Models: U.S. Recession Risk is Currently Low

Last week I wrote about using statistical tools to forecast recessions and referenced James Picerno, who provided the inspiration for this idea through his articles on the Capital Spectator Economic Trend Index (CS-ETI) and the use of probit models to … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

ECRI Betrayed by Their Own Index

Predicting recessions is notoriously difficult.  However, there is at least one organization that has been successful in the past.  The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is one of the leaders in business cycle forecasting. According to The Economist magazine (in … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments