Tag Archives: trading

Price-Volume Ratio Identifies Reversals

Posted on December 19, 2012 by

Sometimes the simplest ideas work the best.  Before market peaks, shares typically transition from strong (institutional) hands to weak (retail) hands.  Before market troughs, shares usually move from weak hands back into strong hands.  Both of these scenarios result in … Continue reading →

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Posted in AmiBroker Code, COT Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Recession Model Improvements

Posted on November 21, 2012 by

I introduced the topic of recession forecasting in late October with a discussion of Capital Spectator’s Economic Trend index, which I used as a foundation for two new recession forecasting models. Last week I explained the potential limitations of forecasting … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Forecasting Recessions is Easier than Modeling Asset Prices

Posted on October 28, 2012 by

In a recent post titled “ECRI Betrayed by Their Own Index,” I noted the apparent inconsistency between the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) current recession call and the recent strength of ECRI’s proprietary weekly leading indicators series. In response to … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Q3 2012 Earnings Update

Posted on October 23, 2012 by

The latest FactSet earnings report is out and the results are not good. It is almost certain that Q3 2012 earnings will be down on a year-over-year basis.  In addition, a number of high profile industry leaders have missed on … Continue reading →

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Global Manufacturing Continues to Decline in September

Posted on October 16, 2012 by

JP Morgan’s Global Manufacturing PMI contracted again in September, with a reading of 48.9; PMI values below 50 signify contraction and PMI values above 50 indicate expansion. The September Global PMI was slightly higher than August’s PMI of 48.1, indicating … Continue reading →

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Multiple Indicators Point to Market Pullback

Posted on October 14, 2012 by

Equity markets have been on a tear for the past 18 weeks and speculators have continued to add to their long positions throughout this rally, reaching the extreme threshold several weeks ago. Over the past month, commercials have added to … Continue reading →

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Posted in COT Analysis, Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

ECRI Betrayed by Their Own Index

Posted on October 11, 2012 by

Predicting recessions is notoriously difficult.  However, there is at least one organization that has been successful in the past.  The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is one of the leaders in business cycle forecasting. According to The Economist magazine (in … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Q3 2012 Earnings Preview

Posted on October 9, 2012 by

With the daily deluge of new data, it is easy to lose the forest for the trees.  When in doubt, focus on earnings, the ultimate driver of stock prices.  If I could choose one statistic to know in advance, it … Continue reading →

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Posted in COT Analysis, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments