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Tag Archives: probit model
Recession Risk Remained Low In June
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through June 2013.
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast June 2013, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Risk Remained Low in May
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through May 2013.
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast May 2013, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Models Indicate Risk Remained Low in April
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through April 2013.
March Recession Model Forecast Increases Slightly
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through March 2013.
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast February 2013, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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February Recession Model Forecast a Surprise
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through February 2013.
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast February 2013, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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U.S. Recession Risk Still Low in January
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through January 2013. If you are new to Trader Edge and would like some additional background on the development of the Trader Edge … Continue reading
U.S. Recession Risk Jumps 20% in November
I introduced the topic of recession forecasting in late October and have since developed several recession forecasting tools that I created by applying probit, logit, and neural network models to a diffusion index of economic and market-related variables. If you … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Strategy Development
Tagged diffusion index, ECRI recession forecast, logit model, neural network models, probit model, recession forecast 2012, recession forecasting, recession modeling, trade, trader
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U.S. Recession Risk Drops Sharply in December
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through December 2012. If you are new to Trader Edge and would like some additional background on the development of the Trader Edge … Continue reading →