Tag Archives: neural network models

U.S. Recession Risk Jumps 20% in November

Posted on December 10, 2012 by

I introduced the topic of recession forecasting in late October and have since developed several recession forecasting tools that I created by applying probit, logit, and neural network models to a diffusion index of economic and market-related variables.  If you … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Recession Model Improvements

Posted on November 21, 2012 by

I introduced the topic of recession forecasting in late October with a discussion of Capital Spectator’s Economic Trend index, which I used as a foundation for two new recession forecasting models. Last week I explained the potential limitations of forecasting … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments