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Tag Archives: recession forecast
Recession Risk Jumps: 09-01-2015
Over the past few months, I have written numerous articles about the increasing downside risk in the equity market. After the bottom fell out of the stock market last month, I have been particularly interested in examining the recession model … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast August 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 08-01-2015
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through July 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast July 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Alarming Report from ECRI
Given the free-fall decline in worldwide equity markets, any new insight into the global economy is particularly valuable right now. The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) published a report last week with the rather innocuous title “A Shrinking Trade Pie.” … Continue reading
Recession Model Forecast: 07-01-2015
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through June 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast June 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 06-01-2015
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through May 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast May 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 05-01-2015
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through April 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast April 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast 04-01-2015
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through March 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a new market-based indicator, bringing the total number of explanatory … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast March 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 10-01-2015
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through September 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator; I added two new explanatory variables in … Continue reading →