Author Archives: Brian Johnson

About Brian Johnson

I have been an investment professional for over 30 years. I worked as a fixed income portfolio manager, personally managing over $13 billion in assets for institutional clients. I was also the President of a financial consulting and software development firm, developing artificial intelligence based forecasting and risk management systems for institutional investment managers. I am now a full-time proprietary trader in options, futures, stocks, and ETFs using both algorithmic and discretionary trading strategies. In addition to my professional investment experience, I designed and taught courses in financial derivatives for both MBA and undergraduate business programs on a part-time basis for a number of years. I have also written four books on options and derivative strategies.

10-30-2015 AAR Strategy Update Posted

Posted on October 30, 2015 by

The October 30, 2015 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 10-01-2015

Posted on October 14, 2015 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through September 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator; I added two new explanatory variables in … Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – September 2015

Posted on October 1, 2015 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the September 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT.

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , | 2 Comments

09-30-2015 AAR Strategy Update Posted

Posted on September 30, 2015 by

The September 30, 2015 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Overvalued Equities Suggest 58.9% Decline

Posted on September 25, 2015 by

There is a big difference between correlation and causation. When I research data relationships, I always look for plausible, underlying cause and effect relationships. One such relationship is between valuation and future returns, particularly before recessions. Doug Short’s recent article … Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Recession Risk Jumps: 09-01-2015

Posted on September 15, 2015 by

Over the past few months, I have written numerous articles about the increasing downside risk in the equity market. After the bottom fell out of the stock market last month, I have been particularly interested in examining the recession model … Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Widening Junk Bond Spreads: Bull Market in Peril

Posted on September 9, 2015 by

In yesterday’s MarketWatch article titled “Junk Bond Market: Danger Ahead,” Brett Arends reported that “Since the start of June the yield on the benchmark junk bond index, the Barclays High-Yield Index, has spiked alarmingly as prices have fallen. In practical … Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

China’s Equity Futures Volume Drops 99 Percent

Posted on September 8, 2015 by

In this morning’s Bloomberg.com article titled “China Just Killed the World’s Biggest Stock-Index Futures Market,” Kyoungwha Kim reported that “Volumes in the country’s CSI 300 Index and CSI 500 Index futures sank to record lows on Tuesday after falling 99 percent from … Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Article Links - External, Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment