Category Archives: Economic Indicators

Global Manufacturing PMI Points to Worldwide Recession

Posted on August 10, 2012 by

No country’s economy is an island.  Even the US economy, which accounts for 28% of global GDP, is heavily dependent on other countries.  Foreign sales as a percentage of total sales for S&P 500 companies are approaching 50%.  As a … Continue reading →

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Jobs Report: Good News and Bad News

Posted on August 5, 2012 by

The market was clearly thrilled with the +163K non-farm payroll (NFP) number on Friday morning.  Equity markets were up worldwide, as were most commodities.  The NFP number was much better than the consensus estimate of +100K, although the estimate of … Continue reading →

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Prices and Earnings Diverge

Posted on July 29, 2012 by

According to FactSet, since June 1, the price of the S&P 500 index has increased by 6.4%, while the year-over-year earnings growth rate for Q3 has declined from +3.5% to -1.6%.  In other words, while analysts were reducing their earnings … Continue reading →

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Yields Soar in Italy and Spain

Posted on July 23, 2012 by

Borrowing costs in Italy and Spain continue to be reliable barometers for the status of the European Debt Crisis.  If Italy and Spain lose access to the credit markets, the house of cards would finally come tumbling down.  As I … Continue reading →

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Housing Starts Only Bright Spot This Week

Posted on July 20, 2012 by

Housing starts were the only bright spot in another dismal week of economic data in the U.S. The following post provides an overview of the major economic releases from this week as well as an update on market conditions, including … Continue reading →

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Follow the Corporate Insiders

Posted on July 14, 2012 by

One of my favorite indicators is based on the commitment of traders (COT) data, which I discussed in the article titled “Trade with the Experts.”  In that article I stated that using the COT indicator “is almost like trading with … Continue reading →

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Global Recession Increasingly Likely

Posted on July 7, 2012 by

Economic releases were mixed in the US last week, but the overall trend is decidedly bearish.  The ISM Index value dropped to 49.7, well below the consensus expectation of 52.5 and almost four points below last month’s reading of 53.5.  … Continue reading →

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Fed Rides to the Rescue – On a Broken-Down Horse

Posted on June 20, 2012 by

The Federal Reserve announced today that they will continue Operation Twist through the end of 2012.  Given the ongoing problems in Europe and the widespread weakness in the global economy, the Fed was widely expected to take substantive action to … Continue reading →

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