Category Archives: Fundamental Analysis

Bulls Beware

Posted on May 1, 2016 by

I have been working daily on designing and backtesting various option strategies, which will continue to be my focus for the foreseeable future. As a result, the time available for writing new posts has been and will continue to be … Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Earnings, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Relative Strength, Risk Management | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 04-01-2016

Posted on April 17, 2016 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through March 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – March 2016

Posted on March 31, 2016 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the March 2016 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT.

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Model Flashes US Recession Warning: 02-01-2016

Posted on February 6, 2016 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through January 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – January 2016

Posted on February 4, 2016 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the January 2016 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST.

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 01-01-2016

Posted on January 24, 2016 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through December 2015. Over the past 12 months, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power … Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – December 2015

Posted on January 7, 2016 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the December 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST.

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Dominos Beginning to Fall

Posted on January 4, 2016 by

I wrote two series of cautionary articles, one in the past few days, and the other in September 2015. Several of the earlier articles referenced China, which is again in focus due to the 7% plunge on Monday. China’s manipulated … Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , | Leave a comment