Category Archives: Market Sentiment

Market Sentiment

Market Breadth Divergence Update

Posted on November 27, 2013 by

On Sunday November 17th, I posted an article that identified headwinds for the equity market.  I explained that five independent leading indicators all pointed to near-term trouble for equities: a forming divergence in market breadth, an elevated CBOE Skew Index, … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing, Trade Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Five Headwinds for Equities

Posted on November 17, 2013 by

I typically release new posts on Thursdays, but market conditions justified an accelerated schedule this week. Five independent leading indicators all point to near-term trouble for equities: a forming divergence in market breadth, an elevated CBOE Skew Index, a very … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

The Three Things that Move the Market

Posted on August 29, 2013 by

The equity market seems complex, but it is really much simpler than you think.  There are only three things that move the market.  The following article will identify the three cause and effect relationships and use this framework to examine … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Q1 2013 GDP Model Forecast Below Consensus Estimate

Posted on April 25, 2013 by

In January, I introduced a new aggregate neural network model that I developed to forecast the seasonally-adjusted, annualized, real rate of change in U.S. GDP.  The GDP growth rate is only reported quarterly, but the model provides a new rolling … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, GDP Forecasting Model, Market Sentiment | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Overbought – But Wait for the Trend Change

Posted on February 14, 2013 by

I introduced the concept of market breadth in a post titled “The Secret Weapon of Technical Analysis.” Based on current breadth readings, the equity market is overbought and due for a pullback.  However, trading against the trend has a low … Continue reading →

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Posted in Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Global Manufacturing PMI Points to Worldwide Recession

Posted on August 10, 2012 by

No country’s economy is an island.  Even the US economy, which accounts for 28% of global GDP, is heavily dependent on other countries.  Foreign sales as a percentage of total sales for S&P 500 companies are approaching 50%.  As a … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Follow the Corporate Insiders

Posted on July 14, 2012 by

One of my favorite indicators is based on the commitment of traders (COT) data, which I discussed in the article titled “Trade with the Experts.”  In that article I stated that using the COT indicator “is almost like trading with … Continue reading →

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Posted in COT Analysis, Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment