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- John C on Recession Model Forecast: 10-1-2022
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Category Archives: Recession Forecasting Model
Recession Model Forecast: 06-01-2016
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through May 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast May 2016, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 05-01-2016
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through April 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast April 2016, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Bulls Beware
I have been working daily on designing and backtesting various option strategies, which will continue to be my focus for the foreseeable future. As a result, the time available for writing new posts has been and will continue to be … Continue reading
Recession Model Forecast: 04-01-2016
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through March 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast March 2016, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
1 Comment
Recession Model Forecast: 03-01-2016
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through February 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast February 2016, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
2 Comments
Model Flashes US Recession Warning: 02-01-2016
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through January 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast January 2016, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 01-01-2016
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through December 2015. Over the past 12 months, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast December 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
1 Comment
Recession Model Forecast: 07-01-2016
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through June 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading →