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- John C on Recession Model Forecast: 10-1-2022
- Recession Model Forecast: 10-1-2022 | Trader Edge on New AI Volatility Edge Platform
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Category Archives: Recession Forecasting Model
Recession Model Forecast: 11-01-2015
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through October 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator; I added two new explanatory variables in … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast October 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 10-01-2015
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through September 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator; I added two new explanatory variables in … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast September 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Overvalued Equities Suggest 58.9% Decline
There is a big difference between correlation and causation. When I research data relationships, I always look for plausible, underlying cause and effect relationships. One such relationship is between valuation and future returns, particularly before recessions. Doug Short’s recent article … Continue reading
Recession Risk Jumps: 09-01-2015
Over the past few months, I have written numerous articles about the increasing downside risk in the equity market. After the bottom fell out of the stock market last month, I have been particularly interested in examining the recession model … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast August 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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“Recession” – Highest Interest Since 2009: Google Trends
When forecasting recessions and market reversals, sometimes it helps to think outside the box. Everyone knows about technical indicators and economic data. Some traders follow market breadth and sentiment, but here is one that you may not follow.
Posted in Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged Google Trends, recession
1 Comment
RSI Divergence Called Every Recession in the Last 25 Years
Tomi Gilmore’s recent MarketWatch article (“Bearish divergence is warning investors not to buy the dip in the stock market”) reminded me how effective divergences can be in identifying market reversals – well before they occur. Bearish divergences occur when an … Continue reading
Recession Model Forecast: 08-01-2015
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through July 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast July 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 12-01-2015
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through November 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator; I added two new explanatory variables in … Continue reading →