Category Archives: Risk Management

10-30-2015 AAR Strategy Update Posted

Posted on October 30, 2015 by

The October 30, 2015 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading →

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 10-01-2015

Posted on October 14, 2015 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through September 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator; I added two new explanatory variables in … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – September 2015

Posted on October 1, 2015 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the September 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , | 2 Comments

09-30-2015 AAR Strategy Update Posted

Posted on September 30, 2015 by

The September 30, 2015 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading →

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Risk Jumps: 09-01-2015

Posted on September 15, 2015 by

Over the past few months, I have written numerous articles about the increasing downside risk in the equity market. After the bottom fell out of the stock market last month, I have been particularly interested in examining the recession model … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Widening Junk Bond Spreads: Bull Market in Peril

Posted on September 9, 2015 by

In yesterday’s MarketWatch article titled “Junk Bond Market: Danger Ahead,” Brett Arends reported that “Since the start of June the yield on the benchmark junk bond index, the Barclays High-Yield Index, has spiked alarmingly as prices have fallen. In practical … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

More Evidence of Negative GDP Growth in China

Posted on September 8, 2015 by

In this morning’s MarketWatch article titled “China exports fall for second month in a row,” Grace Zhy, Mark Magnier, and Rose Yu  report that year-over-year exports and imports in China fell by 5.5% and 13.8% in August and by 8.3% … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

14 Recent Cautionary Articles on Trader Edge

Posted on September 7, 2015 by

Market volatility has exploded recently and prices have declined precipitously. Here are links to 14 cautionary Trader Edge articles that were published during the past few months. These articles will give you some insight into the current economic and market … Continue reading →

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Posted in Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , | Leave a comment