Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – October 2012

The monthly non-farm payroll or employment report is arguably one of the most influential economic releases in the US.  While it may not be the best leading economic indicator, it does move the market.

I have been surprised by the non-farm payroll report in the past and for some reason these surprises have tended to work against my directional and non-directional strategies. As a result, I decided to construct a model to help me forecast the monthly NFP data, which allows me to evaluate the prospective implications for all of my strategies.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Automated Trendlines for Indicators

I recently posted an article titled "How to Draw Trendlines & Avoid Severe Losses."  In that article, I provide a set of objective, unambiguous rules for drawing trendlines. In response to a request from a reader, I followed up with an article titled "How to Generate Automated Trendlines," which explained how to use the rules to draw trendlines on price charts automatically.

The following article takes this concept one step further and describes how to use the same process to generate automated trendlines and trendline break signals on the chart of any indicator. The AmiBroker code segments used to create automated support and resistance lines for indicators are provided at the end of this article. Continue reading

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11 Rules to Improve Your Trading: Rule #11

The purpose of this series of posts is to provide a manageable list of fundamental trading rules to help you improve your trading process - regardless of your experience level.  I will also explain the rationale behind each rule and highlight its significance.  Here is the last in a series of 11 rules that will help you improve your returns and reduce your trading losses.
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11 Rules to Improve Your Trading: Rules 9 & 10

The purpose of this series of posts is to provide a manageable list of fundamental trading rules to help you improve your trading process - regardless of your experience level.  I will also explain the rationale behind each rule and highlight its significance.  Here are the 9th and 10th in a series of 11 rules that will help you improve your returns and reduce your trading losses.
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Global Manufacturing PMI Deteriorates Further

The trading rules series will continue shortly, but I wanted to comment briefly on a recent economic report.  JP Morgan's Global Manufacturing PMI contracted at a faster rate in August, decreasing from 48.4 to 48.1.  The August PMI value was the lowest in the last 38 months.   Continue reading

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11 Rules to Improve Your Trading: Rule # 8

The purpose of this series of posts is to provide a manageable list of fundamental trading rules to help you improve your trading process - regardless of your experience level.  I will also explain the rationale behind each rule and highlight its significance.  Here is the 8th in a series of 11 rules that will help you improve your returns and reduce your trading losses.
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11 Rules to Improve Your Trading: Rules 6 & 7

The purpose of this series of posts is to provide a manageable list of fundamental trading rules to help you improve your trading process - regardless of your experience level.  I will also explain the rationale behind each rule and highlight its significance.  Here are the 6th and 7th in a series of 11 rules that will help you improve your returns and reduce your trading losses.
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How to Generate Automated Trendlines

At the end of every article, I solicit topic suggestions from readers.   The following is recent request from Pete Kasper, which provided the inspiration for this article:

I continue to enjoy your cogent articles week after week. I’d like to respond to your request for topics for future articles. As a retired physicist I tend to favor analysis systems that use statistical backtesting and walk-forward testing. In monitoring price series it is clear that basic technical analysis tools such as support and resistance lines and even trend lines are powerful tools but don’t seem to be adaptable to computerized testing. The proposed topic then is “How to work with support, resistance and trend lines in an otherwise back testing system."

I agree with Pete that trendlines are very powerful tools; unfortunately, they are notoriously difficult to program for use in systematic strategies.  I use trendlines regularly, but have always drawn them by hand.  I have thought about automating this process before, but it never made it to the top of my project list - until now.  Pete's request gave me the incentive to do some preliminary work on the topic.

I recently posted an article titled "How to Draw Trendlines & Avoid Severe Losses."  In that article, I provide a set of objective, unambiguous rules for drawing trendlines. The following article explains how to use those  rules to generate trendlines on all of your charts. Automatically.  The AMIBroker code segments used to generate automated support and resistance lines are provided at the end of this article.

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Posted in COT Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | 9 Comments