Exploiting Earnings Volatility: Video Demo #1

The following is the first video demo of the spreadsheet tools that accompany my new book: Exploiting Earnings Volatility: An Innovative New Approach to Evaluating, Optimizing, and Trading Option Strategies to Profit from Earnings Announcements.

The following video demonstrates how to use the Basic spreadsheet to calculate the Implied Earnings Volatility (IEV) embedded in option prices prior to a past earnings announcement. This value can be used in conjunction with the current Implied Earnings Volatility to design strategies that exploit earnings pricing anomalies.

Brian Johnson

Copyright 2015 Trading Insights, LLC. All rights reserved.

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04-30-2015 AAR Strategy Update Posted

The April 30, 2015 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy page.

The AAR strategy is a conservative, long-only, asset allocation strategy that rotates monthly among five large asset classes: large-cap U.S. stocks, developed country stocks in Europe and Asia, emerging market stocks, U.S. Treasury Notes, and commodities. The strategy was inspired by the Ivy League portfolio and uses trend and technical filters to reduce downside risk.

If none of the five candidates pass their respective trade filters, the AAR strategy remains in cash for the month.   Stop-loss orders are used on every trade to control losses and to facilitate position sizing and risk management.

Brian Johnson

Copyright 2015 - Trading Insights, LLC - All Rights Reserved.

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Sentiment, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

#1 New Release in Options Trading

The Print version of my second options book, Exploiting Earnings Volatility: An Innovative New Approach to Evaluating, Optimizing, and Trading Option Strategies to Profit from Earnings Announcements, is currently the #1 new release in Options Trading on Amazon. The Kindle version is close behind at #4. Thank you for your support.

Exploiting Earnings Volatility introduces a new analytical framework and tool-set for designing, optimizing, and trading option strategies to profit from earnings-related pricing anomalies. Two spreadsheets accompany the book to help readers of all experience levels integrate the concepts into their trading.

If you read the book, please take a few minutes to provide a brief review on Amazon. It would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you,

Brian Johnson

Copyright 2015 Trading Insights, LLC. All rights reserved.

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Recession Model Forecast 04-01-2015

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through March 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a new market-based indicator, bringing the total number of explanatory recession model variables to 19. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 19 variables.

In July 2014, two new explanatory variables were added to the Trader Edge Recession Models and one explanatory variable was replaced. The swapped variables measured similar economic data, but the new series had more predictive power and was more forward-looking. For more information on the changes in July 2014, please see "Two New Improvements to Trader Edge Recession Models."

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Print AND Kindle versions of Brian Johnson’s 2nd Options Book Now Available

The Print and Kindle versions of my second options book, Exploiting Earnings Volatility: An Innovative New Approach to Evaluating, Optimizing, and Trading Option Strategies to Profit from Earnings Announcements, are now available on Amazon. The print version became available earlier than expected.

Exploiting Earnings Volatility introduces a new analytical framework and tool-set for designing, optimizing, and trading option strategies to profit from earnings-related pricing anomalies. Two spreadsheets accompany the book to help readers of all experience levels integrate the concepts into their trading.

If you purchase the book, please take a few minutes to provide a brief review on Amazon. It would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you,

Brian Johnson

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Brian Johnson’s 2nd Options Book Now Available

The Kindle version of my second options book, Exploiting Earnings Volatility: An Innovative New Approach to Evaluating, Optimizing, and Trading Option Strategies to Profit from Earnings Announcements, is now available on Amazon. The print version will be available on Amazon in 3-5 business days.

Exploiting Earnings Volatility introduces a new analytical framework and tool-set for designing, optimizing, and trading option strategies to profit from earnings-related pricing anomalies. Two spreadsheets accompany the book to help readers of all experience levels integrate the concepts into their trading.

If you purchase the book, please take a few minutes to provide a brief review on Amazon. It would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you,

Brian Johnson

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Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – March 2015

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the March 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST.

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03-31-2015 AAR Strategy Update Posted

The March 31, 2015 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy page.

The AAR strategy is a conservative, long-only, asset allocation strategy that rotates monthly among five large asset classes: large-cap U.S. stocks, developed country stocks in Europe and Asia, emerging market stocks, U.S. Treasury Notes, and commodities. The strategy was inspired by the Ivy League portfolio and uses trend and technical filters to reduce downside risk.

If none of the five candidates pass their respective trade filters, the AAR strategy remains in cash for the month.   Stop-loss orders are used on every trade to control losses and to facilitate position sizing and risk management.

Brian Johnson

Copyright 2015 - Trading Insights, LLC - All Rights Reserved.

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment