No Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Forecast This Week

My apologies, but I did not realize that Friday was the observed market holiday for the fourth of July in 2015 and that the June Non-Farm Payroll report would be released early (today - Thursday morning). As a result, there will be no NFP model post this week. NFP model posts will resume next month.

It is interesting to note that the unusually high NFP data from last month (May) was revised lower. The June NFP job gain of 223,000 was very close to the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 230,000.

Brian Johnson

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06-30-2015 AAR Strategy Update Posted

The June 30, 2015 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy page.

The AAR strategy is a conservative, long-only, asset allocation strategy that rotates monthly among five large asset classes: large-cap U.S. stocks, developed country stocks in Europe and Asia, emerging market stocks, U.S. Treasury Notes, and commodities. The strategy was inspired by the Ivy League portfolio and uses trend and technical filters to reduce downside risk.

If none of the five candidates pass their respective trade filters, the AAR strategy remains in cash for the month.   Stop-loss orders are used on every trade to control losses and to facilitate position sizing and risk management.

Brian Johnson

Copyright 2015 - Trading Insights, LLC - All Rights Reserved.

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Trading is a Journey – Not a Destination

The biggest risk in any field of endeavor is becoming complacent. This is true in sports, business, education, politics, and especially in trading. A taste of success can be a very dangerous thing.

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Recommended Reading: 06-18-2015

Readers repeatedly ask me for book and article recommendations, especially new traders who are interested in learning more about trading and investing.  Here is another book recommendation from my personal finance library. A complete list of all past recommendations is available on the Recommended Reading page.

Brian Johnson's Recommendation

Volatility Trading, 2nd Edition

by Euan Sinclair

The second edition of Volatility Trading by Euan Sinclair is one of the most comprehensive and insightful books on volatility trading that I have ever read. While the book uses formulas to convey mathematical and theoretical concepts, the insights in the book were clearly gained from years of practical trading experience.
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Recession Model Forecast: 06-01-2015

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through May 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable in April 2015. The total total number of explanatory recession model variables is now 20. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 20 variables.

In July 2014, two new explanatory variables were added to the Trader Edge Recession Models and one explanatory variable was replaced. The swapped variables measured similar economic data, but the new series had more predictive power and was more forward-looking. For more information on the changes in July 2014, please see "Two New Improvements to Trader Edge Recession Models."

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – May 2015

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the May 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

05-29-2015 AAR Strategy Update Posted

The May 29, 2015 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy page.

The AAR strategy is a conservative, long-only, asset allocation strategy that rotates monthly among five large asset classes: large-cap U.S. stocks, developed country stocks in Europe and Asia, emerging market stocks, U.S. Treasury Notes, and commodities. The strategy was inspired by the Ivy League portfolio and uses trend and technical filters to reduce downside risk.

If none of the five candidates pass their respective trade filters, the AAR strategy remains in cash for the month.   Stop-loss orders are used on every trade to control losses and to facilitate position sizing and risk management.

Brian Johnson

Copyright 2015 - Trading Insights, LLC - All Rights Reserved.

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

No Post This Week

There will be no post this week. My wife and I moved into a new house late last week and everything we own is still in boxes. Hopefully we will have achieved some level of normalcy before next week's post.

Brian Johnson

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