OptionSlam.com Discount for Trader Edge Readers

I am currently writing my second book on options. The new book will introduce an innovative framework and interactive tool set for designing and optimizing option strategies to profit from earnings announcements. The interactive spreadsheets that will accompany the upcoming book require filtering tools to identify prospective candidates and historical earnings data to evaluate directional and volatility characteristics related to earnings.

After researching several vendors, I subscribed to OptionSlam.com to provide the required earnings data and filtering tools for the book and for my proprietary earnings-related trading strategies. During the course of my research for the upcoming book, I collaborated with the owners of OptionSlam.com on several site enhancements that will help all traders who use option strategies to trade earnings announcements. Given the strong synergies between OptionSlam.com and my upcoming book, OptionSlam.com is graciously offering an exclusive 15% discount on annual INSIDER Memberships to Trader Edge readers and to readers who purchase my new book.

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Unexpected Probability Parallels

A few weeks ago I wrote an article on Trader Edge titled “Political Diversions”, which introduced two sites with different but effective methodologies for determining probabilistic election forecasts. One of those sites was Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com, which is arguably the leading and most respected election modeling site on the Internet.  Silver is also the bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don’t.

About a month before the mid-term elections, I read one of Silver’s articles in which he made a statement that forever changed my understanding of election probabilities and allowed me to see surprising parallels to option probabilities.

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Recession Model Forecast 11-01-2014

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through October 2014. Please note that two new explanatory variables were added to the Trader Edge Recession Models in July and one explanatory variable was replaced in August. The swapped variables measured similar economic data, but the new series had more predictive power and was more forward-looking. For more information on the two new variables, please see “Two New Improvements to Trader Edge Recession Models.”

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – October 2014

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the October 2014 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

10-31-2014 AAR Strategy Update Posted

The October 31, 2014 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy page.

The AAR strategy is a conservative, long-only, asset allocation strategy that rotates monthly among five large asset classes: large-cap U.S. stocks, developed country stocks in Europe and Asia, emerging market stocks, U.S. Treasury Notes, and commodities. The strategy was inspired by the Ivy League portfolio and uses trend and technical filters to reduce downside risk.

If none of the five candidates pass their respective trade filters, the AAR strategy remains in cash for the month.   Stop-loss orders are used on every trade to control losses and to facilitate position sizing and risk management.

Brian Johnson

Copyright 2014 – Trading Insights, LLC – All Rights Reserved.

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Sentiment Warning Signal Flashing Red

Many traders use technical and/or fundamental data, but few traders have discovered the unique benefits of using sentiment data in their investment process. Sentiment data attempts to quantify the emotional mood of investors and traders and can be used as a very effective contra-indicator. When traders are complacent and overly bullish, markets tend to pull back. Conversely, when traders panic and emotions are running high, this often indicates a potential bottom and an attractive buying opportunity. The following article presents a unique and troubling sentiment warning signal from a recent proprietary research report from SentimenTrader.

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Posted in Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Political Diversions

I don’t believe it is appropriate to use this forum to spread my political beliefs. However, I do follow politics and I wanted to share with you two interesting sites that forecast election results. The first is Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com. The preceding link will take you directly to FiveThirtyEight’s latest senate forecast.

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Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Equity Market Snapshot 10-15-2014

The recent sell-off in the equity markets and the dramatic increase in volatility has raised serious concerns among many traders and investors. The fact that the sell-off is occurring in October and the expansion is in its fifth year has further stoked those fears. The following article applies several different technical indicators to the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) in the weekly, monthly, and daily time frames.

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Posted in Equity Market Snapshot, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment