02-27-2015 AAR Strategy Update Posted

The February 27, 2015 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy page.

The AAR strategy is a conservative, long-only, asset allocation strategy that rotates monthly among five large asset classes: large-cap U.S. stocks, developed country stocks in Europe and Asia, emerging market stocks, U.S. Treasury Notes, and commodities. The strategy was inspired by the Ivy League portfolio and uses trend and technical filters to reduce downside risk.

If none of the five candidates pass their respective trade filters, the AAR strategy remains in cash for the month.   Stop-loss orders are used on every trade to control losses and to facilitate position sizing and risk management.

Brian Johnson

Copyright 2015 - Trading Insights, LLC - All Rights Reserved.

Share
Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

No Post This Week

We got hit by an ice storm and are currently without power. As a result, there will be no post this week.

Brian Johnson

Share
Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Recession Model Foreast 02-01-2015

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through January 2015. Please note that two new explanatory variables were recently added to the Trader Edge Recession Models and one explanatory variable was replaced. The swapped variables measured similar economic data, but the new series had more predictive power and was more forward-looking. For more information on the two new variables, please see "Two New Improvements to Trader Edge Recession Models."

Continue reading

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Sentiment Warning Signal Flashing Red – Again

Many traders use technical and/or fundamental data, but few traders have discovered the unique benefits of using sentiment data in their investment process. Sentiment data attempts to quantify the emotional mood of investors and traders and can be used as a very effective contra-indicator. When traders are complacent and overly bullish, markets tend to pull back. Conversely, when traders panic and emotions are running high, this often indicates a potential bottom and an attractive buying opportunity. The following article presents a unique and troubling sentiment warning signal from a recent proprietary research report from SentimenTrader.

Continue reading

Share
Posted in Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – January 2015

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the January 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST.

Continue reading

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

01-30-2015 AAR Strategy Update Posted

The January 30, 2015 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy page.

The AAR strategy is a conservative, long-only, asset allocation strategy that rotates monthly among five large asset classes: large-cap U.S. stocks, developed country stocks in Europe and Asia, emerging market stocks, U.S. Treasury Notes, and commodities. The strategy was inspired by the Ivy League portfolio and uses trend and technical filters to reduce downside risk.

If none of the five candidates pass their respective trade filters, the AAR strategy remains in cash for the month.   Stop-loss orders are used on every trade to control losses and to facilitate position sizing and risk management.

Brian Johnson

Copyright 2015 - Trading Insights, LLC - All Rights Reserved.

Share
Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Equity Market Snapshot 01-23-2015

The recent increase in volatility has raised serious concerns among many traders and investors. The following article applies several different technical indicators to the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the daily and monthly time frames. This article will replace the regularly scheduled Thursday post.

Continue reading

Share
Posted in Equity Market Snapshot, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast 01-01-2015

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through December 2014. Please note that two new explanatory variables were added to the Trader Edge Recession Models in July and one explanatory variable was replaced in August. The swapped variables measured similar economic data, but the new series had more predictive power and was more forward-looking. For more information on the two new variables, please see "Two New Improvements to Trader Edge Recession Models."

Continue reading

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment