Print Version of Brian Johnson’s New Options Publication Available

OSHRM200x300The Kindle ($9.99) and Print ($14.99) versions of my new in-depth (100+ page) options article "Option Strategy Hedging & Risk Management: An In-Depth Article Introducing an Interactive Analytical Framework for Hedging Option Strategy Risk", are now both available on Amazon.

Option Strategy Hedging & Risk Management presents a comprehensive analytical framework and accompanying spreadsheet tools for managing and hedging option strategy risk. I developed these practical techniques to hedge the unique and often overlooked risks associated with trading option strategies. These revolutionary new tools can be applied to any option strategy, in any market environment.

If you enjoy the article, please take a few minutes to provide a brief review on Amazon. It would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

Brian Johnson

Copyright 2017 Trading Insights, LLC. All rights reserved.

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Recession Model Forecast: 03-01-2017

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through February 2017. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession model. This allowed me to cull three of the original independent variables with the weakest historical performance and most questionable cause and effect recessionary influence. I added one new variable with surprisingly strong explanatory power at the end of February 2016. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust.

Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources. After the latest additions and deletions, the total number of explanatory recession model variables is now 21. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading

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Brian Johnson’s New Options Publication Now Available

OSHRM200x300The Kindle version ($9.99) of my new in-depth (100+ page) article "Option Strategy Hedging & Risk Management", is now available on Amazon. The print version ($14.99) should be available on Amazon in approximately one to two weeks.

Option Strategy Hedging & Risk Management presents a comprehensive analytical framework and accompanying spreadsheet tools for managing and hedging option strategy risk. I developed these practical techniques to hedge the unique and often overlooked risks associated with trading option strategies. These revolutionary new tools can be applied to any option strategy, in any market environment.

If you enjoy the article, please take a few minutes to provide a brief review on Amazon. It would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

Brian Johnson

Copyright 2017 Trading Insights, LLC. All rights reserved.

 

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No Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Post this Month

I finished the VIX futures project and I am trading the new hedged VIX futures strategy. However, I am now working on a new in-depth options article and do not anticipate releasing new Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) model posts until after the new options article has been published.

Look for the new article on Amazon in the next few months.

Brian Johnson

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Recession Model Forecast: 02-01-2017

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through January 2017. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession model. This allowed me to cull three of the original independent variables with the weakest historical performance and most questionable cause and effect recessionary influence. I added one new variable with surprisingly strong explanatory power at the end of February 2016. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust.

Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources. After the latest additions and deletions, the total number of explanatory recession model variables is now 21. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading

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No Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Post This Month

Due to the demands of an ongoing VIX futures research project, Trader Edge will not publish a Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) model forecast this month.

The VIX futures project is much more complex than I initially anticipated. I have developed and am continuing to refine an integrated combination of risk, valuation, forecasting, and optimization models, which I am using to manage a new hedged VIX futures trading strategy.

Brian Johnson

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Recession Model Forecast: 01-01-2017

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through December 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession model. This allowed me to cull three of the original independent variables with the weakest historical performance and most questionable cause and effect recessionary influence. I added one new variable with surprisingly strong explanatory power at the end of February 2016. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust.

Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources. After the latest additions and deletions, the total number of explanatory recession model variables is now 21. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading

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It’s Earnings Season Again

Exploiting Earnings Volatility

Exploiting Earnings Volatility

It is earnings season again, which is one of the best times to exploit earnings-related option pricing anomalies. Option traders are savvy, but Earnings volatility is a difficult concept and it affects every option in the matrix differently.When markets move, it is very difficult for market-makers to accurately apply the unique earnings volatility adjustments across the entire matrix. This creates value-added opportunities for option traders with the right tools.

Fortunately, there is a precise framework that quantifies the exact impact of earnings volatility on the value of every option. I introduced this analytical framework in my recent book, Exploiting Earnings Volatility: An Innovative New Approach to Evaluating, Optimizing, and Trading Option Strategies to Profit from Earnings Announcements.

"Exploiting Earnings Volatility also includes two Excel spreadsheets. The Basic spreadsheet employs minimal input data to estimate current and historical earnings volatility and utilizes those estimates to forecast future levels of implied volatility around earnings announcements. The Integrated spreadsheet includes a comprehensive volatility model that simultaneously integrates and quantifies every component of real-world implied volatility, including earnings volatility. This powerful tool allows the reader to identify the precise level of over or undervaluation of every option in the matrix and to accurately forecast future option prices and option strategy profits and losses before and after earnings announcements. The Integrated spreadsheet even includes an optimization tool designed to identify the option strategy with the highest level of return per unit of risk, based on the user’s specific assumptions."

After releasing Exploiting Earnings Volatility last year, I made a breakthrough in applying these tools in my own proprietary trading. Continue reading

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