Author Archives: Brian Johnson

About Brian Johnson

I have been an investment professional for over 30 years. I worked as a fixed income portfolio manager, personally managing over $13 billion in assets for institutional clients. I was also the President of a financial consulting and software development firm, developing artificial intelligence based forecasting and risk management systems for institutional investment managers. I am now a full-time proprietary trader in options, futures, stocks, and ETFs using both algorithmic and discretionary trading strategies. In addition to my professional investment experience, I designed and taught courses in financial derivatives for both MBA and undergraduate business programs on a part-time basis for a number of years. I have also written four books on options and derivative strategies.

More Evidence of Negative GDP Growth in China

Posted on September 8, 2015 by

In this morning’s MarketWatch article titled “China exports fall for second month in a row,” Grace Zhy, Mark Magnier, and Rose Yu  report that year-over-year exports and imports in China fell by 5.5% and 13.8% in August and by 8.3% … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

14 Recent Cautionary Articles on Trader Edge

Posted on September 7, 2015 by

Market volatility has exploded recently and prices have declined precipitously. Here are links to 14 cautionary Trader Edge articles that were published during the past few months. These articles will give you some insight into the current economic and market … Continue reading →

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“Recession” – Highest Interest Since 2009: Google Trends

Posted on September 6, 2015 by

When forecasting recessions and market reversals, sometimes it helps to think outside the box. Everyone knows about technical indicators and economic data. Some traders follow market breadth and sentiment, but here is one that you may not follow.

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Posted in Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , | 1 Comment

RSI Divergence Called Every Recession in the Last 25 Years

Posted on September 6, 2015 by

Tomi Gilmore’s recent MarketWatch article (“Bearish divergence is warning investors not to buy the dip in the stock market”) reminded me how effective divergences can be in identifying market reversals – well before they occur. Bearish divergences occur when an … Continue reading →

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Posted in Equity Market Snapshot, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Technical Analysis | Leave a comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – August 2015

Posted on September 3, 2015 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the August 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments

China’s Economic Growth is Actually Negative

Posted on September 2, 2015 by

In Sue Chang’s MarketWatch article last week titled “China’s economy may be in worse shape than people think,” the author quotes analyst David Straszheim at Evercore ISI: “Our proprietary Synthetic Growth Index (SGI) fell 1.1% month-on-month in July, and was … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Systematic Strategy Favors Cash Over Stocks

Posted on September 1, 2015 by

Volatility has increased significantly in the last few weeks and traders are now in panic mode. The best way to avoid panic is to use a simple, systematic, back-tested strategy that has proven to to be successful over decades. In … Continue reading →

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Posted in Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

08-31-2015 AAR Strategy Update Posted

Posted on August 31, 2015 by

The August 31, 2015 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading →

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment