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- John C on Recession Model Forecast: 10-1-2022
- Recession Model Forecast: 10-1-2022 | Trader Edge on New AI Volatility Edge Platform
- Steve Ginn on Trading Option Volatility Featured in Stocks & Commodities Magazine
- John C on Recession Model Forecast: 03-01-2022
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Author Archives: Brian Johnson
Jobs Report: Good News and Bad News
The market was clearly thrilled with the +163K non-farm payroll (NFP) number on Friday morning. Equity markets were up worldwide, as were most commodities. The NFP number was much better than the consensus estimate of +100K, although the estimate of … Continue reading
Vote of No Confidence for Draghi
After Mario Draghi’s impassioned guarantee to do “whatever it takes to save the euro,” equity markets around the globe initially rose in eager anticipation of the breathtaking new plan to rescue the troubled European sovereign debt markets. Unfortunately, today’s announcement … Continue reading
Posted in Market Commentary, Market Timing
Tagged ECB, European borrowing costs, European debt crisis, Mario Draghi, Risk-off
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Market Timing with Relative Strength Revisited
Two months ago in an article titled “Use Relative Strength to Identify Market Trends,” I explained how to use the relative strength of two different indices, futures contracts, or ETFs to identify market trends. This is one of my … Continue reading
Prices and Earnings Diverge
According to FactSet, since June 1, the price of the S&P 500 index has increased by 6.4%, while the year-over-year earnings growth rate for Q3 has declined from +3.5% to -1.6%. In other words, while analysts were reducing their earnings … Continue reading
Yields Soar in Italy and Spain
Borrowing costs in Italy and Spain continue to be reliable barometers for the status of the European Debt Crisis. If Italy and Spain lose access to the credit markets, the house of cards would finally come tumbling down. As I … Continue reading
Housing Starts Only Bright Spot This Week
Housing starts were the only bright spot in another dismal week of economic data in the U.S. The following post provides an overview of the major economic releases from this week as well as an update on market conditions, including … Continue reading
ECRI: “We’re in a Recession”
In a recent interview for Bloomberg, Lakshman Achuthan, the co-founder and COO of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), the world’s leading authority on business cycles, asserts that “we’re in a recession.” A video of the interview is available on … Continue reading
Global Manufacturing PMI Points to Worldwide Recession
No country’s economy is an island. Even the US economy, which accounts for 28% of global GDP, is heavily dependent on other countries. Foreign sales as a percentage of total sales for S&P 500 companies are approaching 50%. As a … Continue reading →