Category Archives: Economic Indicators

Recession Risk Remained Low In June

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through June 2013.

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Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – June 2013

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the June 2013 non-farm payroll data, which will be released tomorrow morning.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Recession Risk Remained Low in May

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through May 2013.

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April 2013: Most Extreme Investor Leverage Since 2001 Bubble

In a recent article “Earnings-Price Divergence Always Followed by Negative Returns,” I noted that every extreme divergence (-20% or lower) between year-over-year corporate profits and equity prices in the past 50 plus years was followed by negative year-over-year equity returns.  … Continue reading

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Non-farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – May 2013

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the May 2013 non-farm payroll data, which will be released tomorrow morning.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

ECRI Cries Wolf – Again

The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is one of the leaders in business cycle forecasting, but they had one spectacular and very public forecasting failure in the fall of 2011 – when they predicted an imminent U.S. recession. Until that … Continue reading

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S&P 500 Overvalued Based on Price to Sales Ratio

In a recent article “Earnings-Price Divergence Always Followed by Negative Returns,” I noted that every extreme divergence (-20% or lower) between year-over-year corporate profits and equity prices in the past 50 plus years was followed by negative year-over-year equity returns.  … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Recession Models Indicate Risk Remained Low in April

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through April 2013.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment