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Category Archives: Market Commentary
Relative Strength Indicator Predicted Current Pullback
The weekly relative strength market timing indicator (RSMTI) signaled the current equity market pullback on January 24, 2014 when the indicator crossed below its 21-week moving average. The daily RSMTI provides earlier signals than the weekly RSMTI and is more … Continue reading
5 Near-Term Warning Signs
Despite the impressive V-shaped recovery in stock prices over the past two weeks, there is still serious cause for concern. There are five near-term warning signs the equity markets must vanquish before the bulls can declare a short-term victory over … Continue reading
Posted in Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Technical Analysis
Tagged accumulation distribution, breadth oscillator, market breadth, market timing, relative strength, relative strength market timing indicator, RSMTI, Skew, skew index, trade, Trader Edge, VASI, volatility adjusted slope, volatility adjusted slope index
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Recession Model Forecast 12-01-2013
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through November 2013.
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast November 2013, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Market Breadth Divergence Update
On Sunday November 17th, I posted an article that identified headwinds for the equity market. I explained that five independent leading indicators all pointed to near-term trouble for equities: a forming divergence in market breadth, an elevated CBOE Skew Index, … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing, Trade Analysis
Tagged advance decline line, CBOE Skew index, cumulative advance-decline line, divergence, double divergence, gamma weighted SOIR, market breadth, market sentiment, market timing, market top, price-to-sales ratio, put-call ratio, technical analysis, trade, trader
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Five Headwinds for Equities
I typically release new posts on Thursdays, but market conditions justified an accelerated schedule this week. Five independent leading indicators all point to near-term trouble for equities: a forming divergence in market breadth, an elevated CBOE Skew Index, a very … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing, Technical Analysis
Tagged advance decline line, CBOE Skew index, cumulative advance-decline line, divergence, double divergence, gamma weighted SOIR, market breadth, market sentiment, market timing, market top, price-to-sales ratio, put-call ratio, technical analysis, trade, trader
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Recession Model Forecast 11-01-2013
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through October 2013.
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast October 2013, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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The Deadly Double Divergence
Would you be interested in an indicator that has signaled ten market tops since 1966 without a single false signal? I read about such an indicator in an article titled “Double Divergences in the Advance-Decline Line,” which appeared in the … Continue reading
Overcome the Odds
I heard something remarkable this morning that reminded me just how ill-suited the human brain is for making investment decisions. The inherent decision-making deficiencies that we all share are well documented in decades of behavioral economics and behavioral finance studies, … Continue reading →