Category Archives: Market Timing

China’s Economic Growth is Actually Negative

Posted on September 2, 2015 by

In Sue Chang’s MarketWatch article last week titled “China’s economy may be in worse shape than people think,” the author quotes analyst David Straszheim at Evercore ISI: “Our proprietary Synthetic Growth Index (SGI) fell 1.1% month-on-month in July, and was … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Systematic Strategy Favors Cash Over Stocks

Posted on September 1, 2015 by

Volatility has increased significantly in the last few weeks and traders are now in panic mode. The best way to avoid panic is to use a simple, systematic, back-tested strategy that has proven to to be successful over decades. In … Continue reading →

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Posted in Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

08-31-2015 AAR Strategy Update Posted

Posted on August 31, 2015 by

The August 31, 2015 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading →

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 08-01-2015

Posted on August 27, 2015 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through July 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Alarming Report from ECRI

Posted on August 26, 2015 by

Given the free-fall decline in worldwide equity markets, any new insight into the global economy is particularly valuable right now. The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) published a report last week with the rather innocuous title “A Shrinking Trade Pie.” … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Negative US Equity Returns Over the Next Decade

Posted on August 10, 2015 by

In a recent post, I referenced Mark Hulbert’s article for MarketWatch that suggested the “Stock market is doomed to rise only 3.5% per year over the next decade.”  That may be wishful thinking. Jesse Felder’s recent column titled “The Warren … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Scary Long-Term Outlook for US Equity Returns

Posted on August 8, 2015 by

According to a recent Mark Hulbert article for MarketWatch, the “Stock market is doomed to rise only 3.5% per year over the next decade.” I do not put much stock in long-term market prognostications, but I do believe in long-term … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – July 2015

Posted on August 6, 2015 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the July 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment