Tag Archives: market timing

5 Near-Term Warning Signs

Despite the impressive V-shaped recovery in stock prices over the past two weeks, there is still serious cause for concern.  There are five near-term warning signs the equity markets must vanquish before the bulls can declare a short-term victory over … Continue reading

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Posted in Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Relatlive Strength Warning Sign

The relative strength market timing indicator (RSMTI) is one of my favorite tools. It has been very useful in identifying short-term and long-term market turning points before they occur.  It correctly predicted the recent pullback in the equity markets eight … Continue reading

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Posted in AmiBroker Code, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Market Breadth Divergence Update

On Sunday November 17th, I posted an article that identified headwinds for the equity market.  I explained that five independent leading indicators all pointed to near-term trouble for equities: a forming divergence in market breadth, an elevated CBOE Skew Index, … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing, Trade Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Five Headwinds for Equities

I typically release new posts on Thursdays, but market conditions justified an accelerated schedule this week. Five independent leading indicators all point to near-term trouble for equities: a forming divergence in market breadth, an elevated CBOE Skew Index, a very … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

The Deadly Double Divergence

Would you be interested in an indicator that has signaled ten market tops since 1966 without a single false signal?  I read about such an indicator in an article titled “Double Divergences in the Advance-Decline Line,” which appeared in the … Continue reading

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Posted in In-Depth Article, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

The Three Things that Move the Market

The equity market seems complex, but it is really much simpler than you think.  There are only three things that move the market.  The following article will identify the three cause and effect relationships and use this framework to examine … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

S&P 500 Overvalued Based on Price to Sales Ratio

In a recent article “Earnings-Price Divergence Always Followed by Negative Returns,” I noted that every extreme divergence (-20% or lower) between year-over-year corporate profits and equity prices in the past 50 plus years was followed by negative year-over-year equity returns.  … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Use Relative Strength to Confirm Trend Direction

In previous articles, I explained how to make market timing decisions with relative strength and how to use relative strength to identify market trends. Both of these articles used relative strength to forecast trend changes in the equity market and … Continue reading

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Posted in Market Commentary, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Security Selection, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , | 8 Comments