Category Archives: Market Commentary

RSI Divergence Called Every Recession in the Last 25 Years

Posted on September 6, 2015 by

Tomi Gilmore’s recent MarketWatch article (“Bearish divergence is warning investors not to buy the dip in the stock market”) reminded me how effective divergences can be in identifying market reversals – well before they occur. Bearish divergences occur when an … Continue reading →

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Posted in Equity Market Snapshot, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Technical Analysis | Leave a comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – August 2015

Posted on September 3, 2015 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the August 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments

China’s Economic Growth is Actually Negative

Posted on September 2, 2015 by

In Sue Chang’s MarketWatch article last week titled “China’s economy may be in worse shape than people think,” the author quotes analyst David Straszheim at Evercore ISI: “Our proprietary Synthetic Growth Index (SGI) fell 1.1% month-on-month in July, and was … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Systematic Strategy Favors Cash Over Stocks

Posted on September 1, 2015 by

Volatility has increased significantly in the last few weeks and traders are now in panic mode. The best way to avoid panic is to use a simple, systematic, back-tested strategy that has proven to to be successful over decades. In … Continue reading →

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Posted in Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Recession Model Forecast: 08-01-2015

Posted on August 27, 2015 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through July 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Alarming Report from ECRI

Posted on August 26, 2015 by

Given the free-fall decline in worldwide equity markets, any new insight into the global economy is particularly valuable right now. The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) published a report last week with the rather innocuous title “A Shrinking Trade Pie.” … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Dow Theory Sell Signal

Posted on August 24, 2015 by

Given the dramatic market decline in worldwide equity markets last week, Mark Hulbert’s recent MarketWatch column titled “The Dow Theory just flashed a sell signal” was especially timely.

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Posted in Article Links - External, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Relative Strength, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Negative US Equity Returns Over the Next Decade

Posted on August 10, 2015 by

In a recent post, I referenced Mark Hulbert’s article for MarketWatch that suggested the “Stock market is doomed to rise only 3.5% per year over the next decade.”  That may be wishful thinking. Jesse Felder’s recent column titled “The Warren … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment