Author Archives: Brian Johnson

About Brian Johnson

I have been an investment professional for over 30 years. I worked as a fixed income portfolio manager, personally managing over $13 billion in assets for institutional clients. I was also the President of a financial consulting and software development firm, developing artificial intelligence based forecasting and risk management systems for institutional investment managers. I am now a full-time proprietary trader in options, futures, stocks, and ETFs using both algorithmic and discretionary trading strategies. In addition to my professional investment experience, I designed and taught courses in financial derivatives for both MBA and undergraduate business programs on a part-time basis for a number of years. I have also written four books on options and derivative strategies.

Follow the Corporate Insiders

Posted on July 14, 2012 by

One of my favorite indicators is based on the commitment of traders (COT) data, which I discussed in the article titled “Trade with the Experts.”  In that article I stated that using the COT indicator “is almost like trading with … Continue reading →

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Posted in COT Analysis, Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Global Recession Increasingly Likely

Posted on July 7, 2012 by

Economic releases were mixed in the US last week, but the overall trend is decidedly bearish.  The ISM Index value dropped to 49.7, well below the consensus expectation of 52.5 and almost four points below last month’s reading of 53.5.  … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Summary Market Indicator Score | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Are You Paying Too Much for Your ETFs?

Posted on July 1, 2012 by

Have you ever had the nagging suspicion that you were paying too much for an exchange traded fund (ETF)?  Your fears were probably justified. This article explains how to find the real-time value of an ETF using a free resource … Continue reading →

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Posted in Security Selection, Stocks & ETFs | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Market Diverges From Economic Data

Posted on June 25, 2012 by

Economic releases were mixed last week.  Building permits came in stronger than expected, but are still at anemic levels.  Leading indicators were up 0.3% last month, which was also stronger than expected. Unfortunately, the ECRI weekly leading indicator (WLI) declined … Continue reading →

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Fed Rides to the Rescue – On a Broken-Down Horse

Posted on June 20, 2012 by

The Federal Reserve announced today that they will continue Operation Twist through the end of 2012.  Given the ongoing problems in Europe and the widespread weakness in the global economy, the Fed was widely expected to take substantive action to … Continue reading →

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More Weak US Economic Data Last Week

Posted on June 18, 2012 by

The US economic news continued to deteriorate last week, but the market was focused exclusively on the Greek vote and failed to acknowledge the latest economic developments. The following post provides an overview of the major economic releases from last … Continue reading →

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Take the First Step Toward an Investment Process

Posted on June 15, 2012 by

Most investors do not use an investment process.  Instead, they ask their friends for stock tips, watch CNBC, read a few newsletters (or blogs), and hope for the best.  There is no consistent rationale behind their decision-making process, very little … Continue reading →

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Posted in Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Seasonal Tools, Security Selection, Stock Screens, SWAMI Charts, Technical Analysis, Zacks | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Spain: More Debt Equals Increased Risk of Default

Posted on June 12, 2012 by

After insisting a week ago that they did not need a bailout, Spain asked for $125 billion to shore up its crumbling banking system. World equity markets initially rallied on the news. Spain’s IBEX 35 index was up a remarkable … Continue reading →

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Posted in Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment