Category Archives: Economic Indicators

Anomalies in Recent Employment Data

Posted on October 21, 2012 by

There have been some strange and contradictory economic data released recently.  The following post examines some of these anomalies and discusses the implications for the market.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Global Manufacturing Continues to Decline in September

Posted on October 16, 2012 by

JP Morgan’s Global Manufacturing PMI contracted again in September, with a reading of 48.9; PMI values below 50 signify contraction and PMI values above 50 indicate expansion. The September Global PMI was slightly higher than August’s PMI of 48.1, indicating … Continue reading →

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Multiple Indicators Point to Market Pullback

Posted on October 14, 2012 by

Equity markets have been on a tear for the past 18 weeks and speculators have continued to add to their long positions throughout this rally, reaching the extreme threshold several weeks ago. Over the past month, commercials have added to … Continue reading →

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Posted in COT Analysis, Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

ECRI Betrayed by Their Own Index

Posted on October 11, 2012 by

Predicting recessions is notoriously difficult.  However, there is at least one organization that has been successful in the past.  The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is one of the leaders in business cycle forecasting. According to The Economist magazine (in … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Q3 2012 Earnings Preview

Posted on October 9, 2012 by

With the daily deluge of new data, it is easy to lose the forest for the trees.  When in doubt, focus on earnings, the ultimate driver of stock prices.  If I could choose one statistic to know in advance, it … Continue reading →

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Posted in COT Analysis, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – October 2012

Posted on October 4, 2012 by

The monthly non-farm payroll or employment report is arguably one of the most influential economic releases in the US.  While it may not be the best leading economic indicator, it does move the market. I have been surprised by the … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Global Manufacturing PMI Deteriorates Further

Posted on September 19, 2012 by

The trading rules series will continue shortly, but I wanted to comment briefly on a recent economic report.  JP Morgan’s Global Manufacturing PMI contracted at a faster rate in August, decreasing from 48.4 to 48.1.  The August PMI value was … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Do Not Short a Bull Market

Posted on August 21, 2012 by

The first and most important rule of trading is to always trade with the prevailing trend.  I have emphasized this rule in a number of my past posts.  It holds true in all market environments, but is especially crucial in … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Options, Risk Management, Summary Market Indicator Score, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment