Category Archives: Market Timing

Global Manufacturing PMI Deteriorates Further

Posted on September 19, 2012 by

The trading rules series will continue shortly, but I wanted to comment briefly on a recent economic report.  JP Morgan’s Global Manufacturing PMI contracted at a faster rate in August, decreasing from 48.4 to 48.1.  The August PMI value was … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

How to Generate Automated Trendlines

Posted on September 12, 2012 by

At the end of every article, I solicit topic suggestions from readers.   The following is recent request from Pete Kasper, which provided the inspiration for this article: I continue to enjoy your cogent articles week after week. I’d like … Continue reading →

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Posted in COT Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | 9 Comments

September: Worst Month of the Year for Stocks

Posted on August 27, 2012 by

Stock prices have had an impressive run, especially considering the risks facing the global economy and the growing uncertainties fueled by the looming fiscal cliff and the upcoming election.  During the recent market advance, investors have become increasingly complacent, evidenced … Continue reading →

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Posted in Market Commentary, Market Timing, Seasonal Tools | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Williams’s POIV Indicator Identifies Reversal Prospects

Posted on August 23, 2012 by

In the December 2007 issue of Futures Magazine, Larry Williams described his Price, Open Interest, and Volume (POIV) indicator and he also included the formula for POIV, which allows us to reproduce the indicator calculations.  The following post reexamines the … Continue reading →

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Posted in COT Analysis, Futures, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Do Not Short a Bull Market

Posted on August 21, 2012 by

The first and most important rule of trading is to always trade with the prevailing trend.  I have emphasized this rule in a number of my past posts.  It holds true in all market environments, but is especially crucial in … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Options, Risk Management, Summary Market Indicator Score, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

European Yield Barometer Tainted by ECB

Posted on August 16, 2012 by

Over the past week, the yield on ten-year Spanish debt dropped from over 7.00% to a low of 6.60%.  The yield on Italy’s debt dropped from over 6.00% to 5.78%.   That is great news, right?  It means that Europe … Continue reading →

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Global Manufacturing PMI Points to Worldwide Recession

Posted on August 10, 2012 by

No country’s economy is an island.  Even the US economy, which accounts for 28% of global GDP, is heavily dependent on other countries.  Foreign sales as a percentage of total sales for S&P 500 companies are approaching 50%.  As a … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Jobs Report: Good News and Bad News

Posted on August 5, 2012 by

The market was clearly thrilled with the +163K non-farm payroll (NFP) number on Friday morning.  Equity markets were up worldwide, as were most commodities.  The NFP number was much better than the consensus estimate of +100K, although the estimate of … Continue reading →

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