Category Archives: Market Timing

Vote of No Confidence for Draghi

Posted on August 2, 2012 by

After Mario Draghi’s impassioned guarantee to do “whatever it takes to save the euro,” equity markets around the globe initially rose in eager anticipation of the breathtaking new plan to rescue the troubled European sovereign debt markets. Unfortunately, today’s announcement … Continue reading →

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Market Timing with Relative Strength Revisited

Posted on August 1, 2012 by

Two months ago in an article titled “Use Relative Strength to Identify Market Trends,” I explained how to use the relative strength of two different indices, futures contracts, or ETFs to identify market trends.   This is one of my … Continue reading →

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Posted in In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , | 6 Comments

Prices and Earnings Diverge

Posted on July 29, 2012 by

According to FactSet, since June 1, the price of the S&P 500 index has increased by 6.4%, while the year-over-year earnings growth rate for Q3 has declined from +3.5% to -1.6%.  In other words, while analysts were reducing their earnings … Continue reading →

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Yields Soar in Italy and Spain

Posted on July 23, 2012 by

Borrowing costs in Italy and Spain continue to be reliable barometers for the status of the European Debt Crisis.  If Italy and Spain lose access to the credit markets, the house of cards would finally come tumbling down.  As I … Continue reading →

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Housing Starts Only Bright Spot This Week

Posted on July 20, 2012 by

Housing starts were the only bright spot in another dismal week of economic data in the U.S. The following post provides an overview of the major economic releases from this week as well as an update on market conditions, including … Continue reading →

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ECRI: “We’re in a Recession”

Posted on July 16, 2012 by

In a recent interview for Bloomberg, Lakshman Achuthan, the co-founder and COO of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), the world’s leading authority on business cycles, asserts that “we’re in a recession.” A video of the interview is available on … Continue reading →

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Follow the Corporate Insiders

Posted on July 14, 2012 by

One of my favorite indicators is based on the commitment of traders (COT) data, which I discussed in the article titled “Trade with the Experts.”  In that article I stated that using the COT indicator “is almost like trading with … Continue reading →

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Global Recession Increasingly Likely

Posted on July 7, 2012 by

Economic releases were mixed in the US last week, but the overall trend is decidedly bearish.  The ISM Index value dropped to 49.7, well below the consensus expectation of 52.5 and almost four points below last month’s reading of 53.5.  … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Summary Market Indicator Score | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments