Everybody Loves Fridays

We all use economic, fundamental, and/or technical data to gain insight into market movements.  Some data may appear to lead the market, but there is often no plausible explanation for their supposed predictive abilities.  This can be disconcerting for a trader.  If we look at enough data over enough periods, some variables will appear to have explanatory power, but most do not hold up in actual trading.

However, the best tools come with a story.  In other words, there is a simple (yet, hypothetical) explanation why the variable should have some level of predictive ability.  These are my favorite types of indicators and they work well in practice, but they are hard to find.  I got the inspiration for a surprisingly effective causal indicator in a bonus 2012 Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities article titled "10 Signs That Tell You When To Stop Trading," by Matt Blackman CMT.

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Posted in COT Analysis, Futures, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Seasonal Tools, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Look at the Big Picture

We all have a few favorite technical indicators.  However, almost all technical indicators calculate indicator values for a specific look-back period and then plot those values over time.  With this approach, we can only analyze one look-back period at a time.

Of course, we could create several graphs for each indicator, each with a different look-back period.  However, if we use several indicators, each with multiple periods, we would quickly be overwhelmed with data. I recently read about an innovative solution to this problem in a March 2012 Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities article titled "Introducing SwamiCharts," written by John Ehlers and Ric Way.

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Posted in COT Analysis, Futures, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Stocks & ETFs, Technical Analysis, Trade Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Stop Loss Orders are Not Enough

Using stop loss orders on every trade is a critical component of risk management, but stops are only part of the solution. Even when using stops, most traders still take far too much risk.  In many cases, they completely overlook the most important step in risk management: determining the appropriate amount of capital to risk on each trade.

Once you have determined the amount of capital to risk on a given trade, you can then use your predetermined stop level to calculate the corresponding position size to buy or sell.  In other words, the amount of capital at risk, the width of the stop, and the corresponding position size are all directly related through a simple mathematical formula - one that very few traders use.

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Posted in Futures, In-Depth Article, Risk Management, Stocks & ETFs | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

The Key to Trading Success

We all have losing trades. The key to trading success is limiting the magnitude of those losses, allowing us to return to profitability quickly.  Unfortunately, our very nature makes it extremely difficult for us to control our losses.

Numerous studies in behavioral finance have demonstrated that the pain of losses far exceeds the pleasure of gains.  In addition, we tend not to acknowledge gains and losses until they are realized.  As a result, we avoid closing losing trades, hoping and praying that they will eventually turn profitable.  Conversely, we can't wait to sell our winners, fearing that they will quickly turn into losers.  Regrettably, this instinctive behavior violates one of the principal rules of trading: cut your losses quickly and let your winners run. In other words, we are programmed to fail - but there is hope. Continue reading

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Trade With the Experts

How would you like to know the current and historical positions of knowledgeable experts, with proven track records in almost every market - for free? Very few traders take advantage of this resource provided weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC): the commitment of traders (COT) reportContinue reading

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Posted in COT Analysis, Futures, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Technical Analysis, Trade Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 11 Comments

The Secret Weapon of Technical Analysis

The vast majority of technical indicators perform a computation on the price or volume of an individual security.  While these indicators can provide valuable insights, most traders ignore the most effective type of technical indicators.  Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, In-Depth Article, Market Timing, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 24 Comments

The Easiest Way to Identify Trends

The exponential growth in processing speed and computer memory over the last 30 years has spawned countless new technical indicators and a wide range of new analytical tools.  Unfortunately, the ever increasing array of choices has complicated the situation for many traders - making it even more challenging to develop a logical, intuitive, investment process.

What if I told you that there is a simple, effective, and objective way to determine both short-term and long-term price trends?  There is... Continue reading

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Posted in In-Depth Article, Market Timing, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | 15 Comments

Welcome to Trader Edge

Welcome to the Trader Edge website.  The goal of this site to provide information and ideas that will help you enhance your investment process and improve your trading results.

We recognize that each individual's background, financial situation, and objectives are unique.  As a result, we will attempt to provide educational articles that will appeal to the beginner, as well as more advanced tools and strategies that will benefit more experienced traders.  If you are ever unfamiliar with an investment term, please use the Resources link to Investopedia - or post a comment and ask for a clarification.

Some of the initial posts will be longer and more in-depth, to provide a foundation for future market  commentary.  Going forward, there will be one or more posts per week of varying length.

A wide range of topics will be covered: economic indicators, technical analysis, market commentary, options, futures, stocks, exchange traded funds (ETFs), strategy development, trade analysis, and risk management. Continue reading

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