Category Archives: Market Timing

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – October 2012

I introduced a simple non-farm payroll forecasting model last month.  Since then, I have revised the model, which improved the fit and reduced the standard error.  This article explains the current forecast for the October non-farm payroll data, which will … Continue reading

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Forecasting Recessions is Easier than Modeling Asset Prices

In a recent post titled “ECRI Betrayed by Their Own Index,” I noted the apparent inconsistency between the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) current recession call and the recent strength of ECRI’s proprietary weekly leading indicators series. In response to … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Q3 2012 Earnings Update

The latest FactSet earnings report is out and the results are not good. It is almost certain that Q3 2012 earnings will be down on a year-over-year basis.  In addition, a number of high profile industry leaders have missed on … Continue reading

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Global Manufacturing Continues to Decline in September

JP Morgan’s Global Manufacturing PMI contracted again in September, with a reading of 48.9; PMI values below 50 signify contraction and PMI values above 50 indicate expansion. The September Global PMI was slightly higher than August’s PMI of 48.1, indicating … Continue reading

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Multiple Indicators Point to Market Pullback

Equity markets have been on a tear for the past 18 weeks and speculators have continued to add to their long positions throughout this rally, reaching the extreme threshold several weeks ago. Over the past month, commercials have added to … Continue reading

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Posted in COT Analysis, Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Q3 2012 Earnings Preview

With the daily deluge of new data, it is easy to lose the forest for the trees.  When in doubt, focus on earnings, the ultimate driver of stock prices.  If I could choose one statistic to know in advance, it … Continue reading

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Posted in COT Analysis, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – October 2012

The monthly non-farm payroll or employment report is arguably one of the most influential economic releases in the US.  While it may not be the best leading economic indicator, it does move the market. I have been surprised by the … Continue reading

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Automated Trendlines for Indicators

I recently posted an article titled “How to Draw Trendlines & Avoid Severe Losses.”  In that article, I provide a set of objective, unambiguous rules for drawing trendlines. In response to a request from a reader, I followed up with … Continue reading

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Posted in AmiBroker Code, Futures, In-Depth Article, Market Timing, Technical Analysis, Trade Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment