Category Archives: Market Timing

Market Diverges From Economic Data

Posted on June 25, 2012 by

Economic releases were mixed last week.  Building permits came in stronger than expected, but are still at anemic levels.  Leading indicators were up 0.3% last month, which was also stronger than expected. Unfortunately, the ECRI weekly leading indicator (WLI) declined … Continue reading →

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Posted in Market Commentary, Market Timing, Summary Market Indicator Score | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Fed Rides to the Rescue – On a Broken-Down Horse

Posted on June 20, 2012 by

The Federal Reserve announced today that they will continue Operation Twist through the end of 2012.  Given the ongoing problems in Europe and the widespread weakness in the global economy, the Fed was widely expected to take substantive action to … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Take the First Step Toward an Investment Process

Posted on June 15, 2012 by

Most investors do not use an investment process.  Instead, they ask their friends for stock tips, watch CNBC, read a few newsletters (or blogs), and hope for the best.  There is no consistent rationale behind their decision-making process, very little … Continue reading →

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Posted in Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Seasonal Tools, Security Selection, Stock Screens, SWAMI Charts, Technical Analysis, Zacks | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Spain: More Debt Equals Increased Risk of Default

Posted on June 12, 2012 by

After insisting a week ago that they did not need a bailout, Spain asked for $125 billion to shore up its crumbling banking system. World equity markets initially rallied on the news. Spain’s IBEX 35 index was up a remarkable … Continue reading →

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Posted in Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Use Relative Strength to Identify Market Trends

Posted on June 8, 2012 by

Relative strength rotational strategies have a proven track record of success, but the potential uses of relative strength extend much further than security selection.  One of my favorite techniques is to use the relative strength of two different indices, futures … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Futures, In-Depth Article, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

How to Draw Trendlines & Avoid Severe Losses

Posted on June 1, 2012 by

From the high in 2000 to the low in 2002, the NASDAQ 100 index lost 83% of its value.  It has never recovered its losses.   From 2008 to 2009, the S&P 500 index lost 57% of its value (peak … Continue reading →

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Posted in Futures, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management, Stocks & ETFs, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Are the Seasonal Trends Working this Year?

Posted on May 18, 2012 by

Knowing the historical seasonal tendencies of our trading instruments can dramatically improve our returns, but how much weight should we assign to seasonal trends?  What should we do if our other indicators are bearish and the historical seasonal trend is … Continue reading →

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Posted in Futures, In-Depth Article, Market Timing, Options, Seasonal Tools, SWAMI Charts, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Use Sector Confirmation to Improve Your Trading Results

Posted on May 11, 2012 by

Analyzing the technical and/or fundamental characteristics of an individual security is obviously a requirement before investing.  However, very few traders go the extra mile and evaluate the characteristics of the market sector as well.  Using sector confirmation can help you … Continue reading →

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Posted in COT Analysis, Futures, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, SWAMI Charts, Trade Analysis | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments