Category Archives: Strategy Development

Active Trader Article: Option Strategies for Bull-Market Reversals

Posted on December 13, 2012 by

I have a new article in the January 2013 issue of Active Trader magazine.  I received the January issue in the mail earlier this week, so it should also be available at Barnes and Noble bookstores.  If not, it should … Continue reading →

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Posted in Market Timing, Options, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

U.S. Recession Risk Jumps 20% in November

Posted on December 10, 2012 by

I introduced the topic of recession forecasting in late October and have since developed several recession forecasting tools that I created by applying probit, logit, and neural network models to a diffusion index of economic and market-related variables.  If you … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Long-Only Equity Strategy Earned 44% in 2008

Posted on November 26, 2012 by

I read about this strategy in an article titled “The Low-Close Edge,” which appeared in the December 2012 issue of Active Trader.  The article was written by Nat Stewart.  Stewart introduced a very simple, systematic, long-only equity strategy that generated … Continue reading →

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Posted in Market Timing, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | 7 Comments

Forecasting Recessions is Easier than Modeling Asset Prices

Posted on October 28, 2012 by

In a recent post titled “ECRI Betrayed by Their Own Index,” I noted the apparent inconsistency between the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) current recession call and the recent strength of ECRI’s proprietary weekly leading indicators series. In response to … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

11 Rules to Improve Your Trading: Rule #11

Posted on September 26, 2012 by

The purpose of this series of posts is to provide a manageable list of fundamental trading rules to help you improve your trading process – regardless of your experience level.  I will also explain the rationale behind each rule and … Continue reading →

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Posted in 11 Rules to Improve Your Trading, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

11 Rules to Improve Your Trading: Rules 9 & 10

Posted on September 21, 2012 by

The purpose of this series of posts is to provide a manageable list of fundamental trading rules to help you improve your trading process – regardless of your experience level.  I will also explain the rationale behind each rule and … Continue reading →

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11 Rules to Improve Your Trading: Rule # 8

Posted on September 18, 2012 by

The purpose of this series of posts is to provide a manageable list of fundamental trading rules to help you improve your trading process – regardless of your experience level.  I will also explain the rationale behind each rule and … Continue reading →

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11 Rules to Improve Your Trading: Rules 6 & 7

Posted on September 14, 2012 by

The purpose of this series of posts is to provide a manageable list of fundamental trading rules to help you improve your trading process – regardless of your experience level.  I will also explain the rationale behind each rule and … Continue reading →

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Posted in 11 Rules to Improve Your Trading, Futures, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged | Leave a comment