Author Archives: Brian Johnson

About Brian Johnson

I have been an investment professional for over 30 years. I worked as a fixed income portfolio manager, personally managing over $13 billion in assets for institutional clients. I was also the President of a financial consulting and software development firm, developing artificial intelligence based forecasting and risk management systems for institutional investment managers. I am now a full-time proprietary trader in options, futures, stocks, and ETFs using both algorithmic and discretionary trading strategies. In addition to my professional investment experience, I designed and taught courses in financial derivatives for both MBA and undergraduate business programs on a part-time basis for a number of years. I have also written four books on options and derivative strategies.

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – October 2012

Posted on November 1, 2012 by

I introduced a simple non-farm payroll forecasting model last month.  Since then, I have revised the model, which improved the fit and reduced the standard error.  This article explains the current forecast for the October non-farm payroll data, which will … Continue reading →

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Forecasting Recessions is Easier than Modeling Asset Prices

Posted on October 28, 2012 by

In a recent post titled “ECRI Betrayed by Their Own Index,” I noted the apparent inconsistency between the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) current recession call and the recent strength of ECRI’s proprietary weekly leading indicators series. In response to … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Q3 2012 Earnings Update

Posted on October 23, 2012 by

The latest FactSet earnings report is out and the results are not good. It is almost certain that Q3 2012 earnings will be down on a year-over-year basis.  In addition, a number of high profile industry leaders have missed on … Continue reading →

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Anomalies in Recent Employment Data

Posted on October 21, 2012 by

There have been some strange and contradictory economic data released recently.  The following post examines some of these anomalies and discusses the implications for the market.

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Global Manufacturing Continues to Decline in September

Posted on October 16, 2012 by

JP Morgan’s Global Manufacturing PMI contracted again in September, with a reading of 48.9; PMI values below 50 signify contraction and PMI values above 50 indicate expansion. The September Global PMI was slightly higher than August’s PMI of 48.1, indicating … Continue reading →

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Multiple Indicators Point to Market Pullback

Posted on October 14, 2012 by

Equity markets have been on a tear for the past 18 weeks and speculators have continued to add to their long positions throughout this rally, reaching the extreme threshold several weeks ago. Over the past month, commercials have added to … Continue reading →

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Posted in COT Analysis, Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

ECRI Betrayed by Their Own Index

Posted on October 11, 2012 by

Predicting recessions is notoriously difficult.  However, there is at least one organization that has been successful in the past.  The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is one of the leaders in business cycle forecasting. According to The Economist magazine (in … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Q3 2012 Earnings Preview

Posted on October 9, 2012 by

With the daily deluge of new data, it is easy to lose the forest for the trees.  When in doubt, focus on earnings, the ultimate driver of stock prices.  If I could choose one statistic to know in advance, it … Continue reading →

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Posted in COT Analysis, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments