Category Archives: Market Commentary

ECRI Betrayed by Their Own Index

Posted on October 11, 2012 by

Predicting recessions is notoriously difficult.  However, there is at least one organization that has been successful in the past.  The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is one of the leaders in business cycle forecasting. According to The Economist magazine (in … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Q3 2012 Earnings Preview

Posted on October 9, 2012 by

With the daily deluge of new data, it is easy to lose the forest for the trees.  When in doubt, focus on earnings, the ultimate driver of stock prices.  If I could choose one statistic to know in advance, it … Continue reading →

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Posted in COT Analysis, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – October 2012

Posted on October 4, 2012 by

The monthly non-farm payroll or employment report is arguably one of the most influential economic releases in the US.  While it may not be the best leading economic indicator, it does move the market. I have been surprised by the … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Global Manufacturing PMI Deteriorates Further

Posted on September 19, 2012 by

The trading rules series will continue shortly, but I wanted to comment briefly on a recent economic report.  JP Morgan’s Global Manufacturing PMI contracted at a faster rate in August, decreasing from 48.4 to 48.1.  The August PMI value was … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

How to Generate Automated Trendlines

Posted on September 12, 2012 by

At the end of every article, I solicit topic suggestions from readers.   The following is recent request from Pete Kasper, which provided the inspiration for this article: I continue to enjoy your cogent articles week after week. I’d like … Continue reading →

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Posted in COT Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | 9 Comments

September: Worst Month of the Year for Stocks

Posted on August 27, 2012 by

Stock prices have had an impressive run, especially considering the risks facing the global economy and the growing uncertainties fueled by the looming fiscal cliff and the upcoming election.  During the recent market advance, investors have become increasingly complacent, evidenced … Continue reading →

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Posted in Market Commentary, Market Timing, Seasonal Tools | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Williams’s POIV Indicator Identifies Reversal Prospects

Posted on August 23, 2012 by

In the December 2007 issue of Futures Magazine, Larry Williams described his Price, Open Interest, and Volume (POIV) indicator and he also included the formula for POIV, which allows us to reproduce the indicator calculations.  The following post reexamines the … Continue reading →

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Posted in COT Analysis, Futures, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Do Not Short a Bull Market

Posted on August 21, 2012 by

The first and most important rule of trading is to always trade with the prevailing trend.  I have emphasized this rule in a number of my past posts.  It holds true in all market environments, but is especially crucial in … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Options, Risk Management, Summary Market Indicator Score, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment