Tag Archives: trader

Symmetric TRIN Indicator Identifies Potential Reversals

Posted on November 16, 2012 by

The TRIN (also called the ARMS index) is a breadth indicator created by Richard W. Arms.  It acts as an oscillator and extreme values can be used to identify overbought and oversold conditions.  Unfortunately, the standard TRIN indicator has some … Continue reading →

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Posted in AmiBroker Code, Market Breadth, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Recession Models and the Fiscal Cliff

Posted on November 13, 2012 by

Last week I introduced two new probit models to forecast recessions and the period between the market’s peak and trough associated with each recession – as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). In response to that article, … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

New Probit Models: U.S. Recession Risk is Currently Low

Posted on November 8, 2012 by

Last week I wrote about using statistical tools to forecast recessions and referenced James Picerno, who provided the inspiration for this idea through his articles on the Capital Spectator Economic Trend Index (CS-ETI) and the use of probit models to … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Forecasting Recessions is Easier than Modeling Asset Prices

Posted on October 28, 2012 by

In a recent post titled “ECRI Betrayed by Their Own Index,” I noted the apparent inconsistency between the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) current recession call and the recent strength of ECRI’s proprietary weekly leading indicators series. In response to … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Q3 2012 Earnings Update

Posted on October 23, 2012 by

The latest FactSet earnings report is out and the results are not good. It is almost certain that Q3 2012 earnings will be down on a year-over-year basis.  In addition, a number of high profile industry leaders have missed on … Continue reading →

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Posted in COT Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Global Manufacturing Continues to Decline in September

Posted on October 16, 2012 by

JP Morgan’s Global Manufacturing PMI contracted again in September, with a reading of 48.9; PMI values below 50 signify contraction and PMI values above 50 indicate expansion. The September Global PMI was slightly higher than August’s PMI of 48.1, indicating … Continue reading →

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Multiple Indicators Point to Market Pullback

Posted on October 14, 2012 by

Equity markets have been on a tear for the past 18 weeks and speculators have continued to add to their long positions throughout this rally, reaching the extreme threshold several weeks ago. Over the past month, commercials have added to … Continue reading →

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Posted in COT Analysis, Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

ECRI Betrayed by Their Own Index

Posted on October 11, 2012 by

Predicting recessions is notoriously difficult.  However, there is at least one organization that has been successful in the past.  The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is one of the leaders in business cycle forecasting. According to The Economist magazine (in … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments