Category Archives: In-Depth Article

New Probit Models: U.S. Recession Risk is Currently Low

Posted on November 8, 2012 by

Last week I wrote about using statistical tools to forecast recessions and referenced James Picerno, who provided the inspiration for this idea through his articles on the Capital Spectator Economic Trend Index (CS-ETI) and the use of probit models to … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Automated Trendlines for Indicators

Posted on September 30, 2012 by

I recently posted an article titled “How to Draw Trendlines & Avoid Severe Losses.”  In that article, I provide a set of objective, unambiguous rules for drawing trendlines. In response to a request from a reader, I followed up with … Continue reading →

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Posted in AmiBroker Code, Futures, In-Depth Article, Market Timing, Technical Analysis, Trade Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

How to Generate Automated Trendlines

Posted on September 12, 2012 by

At the end of every article, I solicit topic suggestions from readers.   The following is recent request from Pete Kasper, which provided the inspiration for this article: I continue to enjoy your cogent articles week after week. I’d like … Continue reading →

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Posted in COT Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | 9 Comments

Williams’s POIV Indicator Identifies Reversal Prospects

Posted on August 23, 2012 by

In the December 2007 issue of Futures Magazine, Larry Williams described his Price, Open Interest, and Volume (POIV) indicator and he also included the formula for POIV, which allows us to reproduce the indicator calculations.  The following post reexamines the … Continue reading →

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Posted in COT Analysis, Futures, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Do Not Short a Bull Market

Posted on August 21, 2012 by

The first and most important rule of trading is to always trade with the prevailing trend.  I have emphasized this rule in a number of my past posts.  It holds true in all market environments, but is especially crucial in … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Options, Risk Management, Summary Market Indicator Score, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Market Timing with Relative Strength Revisited

Posted on August 1, 2012 by

Two months ago in an article titled “Use Relative Strength to Identify Market Trends,” I explained how to use the relative strength of two different indices, futures contracts, or ETFs to identify market trends.   This is one of my … Continue reading →

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Posted in In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , | 6 Comments

Take the First Step Toward an Investment Process

Posted on June 15, 2012 by

Most investors do not use an investment process.  Instead, they ask their friends for stock tips, watch CNBC, read a few newsletters (or blogs), and hope for the best.  There is no consistent rationale behind their decision-making process, very little … Continue reading →

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Posted in Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Seasonal Tools, Security Selection, Stock Screens, SWAMI Charts, Technical Analysis, Zacks | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Use Relative Strength to Identify Market Trends

Posted on June 8, 2012 by

Relative strength rotational strategies have a proven track record of success, but the potential uses of relative strength extend much further than security selection.  One of my favorite techniques is to use the relative strength of two different indices, futures … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Futures, In-Depth Article, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments