Tag Archives: trade

U.S. Recession Risk Jumps 20% in November

Posted on December 10, 2012 by

I introduced the topic of recession forecasting in late October and have since developed several recession forecasting tools that I created by applying probit, logit, and neural network models to a diffusion index of economic and market-related variables.  If you … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

A Relative Strength Market Timing Oscillator

Posted on December 1, 2012 by

I read about this indicator in an article titled “Roulette Wheels and Individual Stocks,” which appeared in the December 2012 issue of Active Trader.  The article was written by Richard J. Bauer, Jr.  In the article, Bauer used an innovative … Continue reading →

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Posted in AmiBroker Code, COT Analysis, Futures, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Long-Only Equity Strategy Earned 44% in 2008

Posted on November 26, 2012 by

I read about this strategy in an article titled “The Low-Close Edge,” which appeared in the December 2012 issue of Active Trader.  The article was written by Nat Stewart.  Stewart introduced a very simple, systematic, long-only equity strategy that generated … Continue reading →

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Posted in Market Timing, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | 7 Comments

Recession Model Improvements

Posted on November 21, 2012 by

I introduced the topic of recession forecasting in late October with a discussion of Capital Spectator’s Economic Trend index, which I used as a foundation for two new recession forecasting models. Last week I explained the potential limitations of forecasting … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Symmetric TRIN Indicator Identifies Potential Reversals

Posted on November 16, 2012 by

The TRIN (also called the ARMS index) is a breadth indicator created by Richard W. Arms.  It acts as an oscillator and extreme values can be used to identify overbought and oversold conditions.  Unfortunately, the standard TRIN indicator has some … Continue reading →

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Posted in AmiBroker Code, Market Breadth, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Recession Models and the Fiscal Cliff

Posted on November 13, 2012 by

Last week I introduced two new probit models to forecast recessions and the period between the market’s peak and trough associated with each recession – as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). In response to that article, … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

11 Rules to Improve Your Trading: Rule #11

Posted on September 26, 2012 by

The purpose of this series of posts is to provide a manageable list of fundamental trading rules to help you improve your trading process – regardless of your experience level.  I will also explain the rationale behind each rule and … Continue reading →

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Posted in 11 Rules to Improve Your Trading, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Trade With the Experts

Posted on March 28, 2012 by

How would you like to know the current and historical positions of knowledgeable experts, with proven track records in almost every market – for free? Very few traders take advantage of this resource provided weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading … Continue reading →

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Posted in COT Analysis, Futures, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Technical Analysis, Trade Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 11 Comments